• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0778

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri May 28 01:18:16 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 280118
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 280117=20
    ARZ000-OKZ000-280215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0778
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0817 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021

    Areas affected...Parts of south central and southeastern Oklahoma
    into adjacent portions of Arkansas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 217...

    Valid 280117Z - 280215Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 217
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A more intense portion of a larger thunderstorm cluster
    may pose continuing risk for potentially damaging wind gusts across
    the Oklahoma/Arkansas border, between Fort Smith and De Queen, into
    the Hot Springs vicinity by 10-11 PM CDT.

    DISCUSSION...A cluster of stronger storms and southeastward surging
    outflow, now southeast/east of the Muskogee and McAlester
    vicinities, appears to have been supported during the past few hours
    by a developing MCV. Westerly deep-layer mean flow may now be in
    excess of 40 kt in a narrow corridor to the south of this feature,
    contributing to a storm motion which probably will maintain
    moderately strong southeasterly inflow of moist boundary-layer air (characterized by CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg) at least another
    couple of hours. It appears that this will continue to be
    accompanied by strong surface gusts approaching or exceeding severe
    limits into areas near/northwest of Hot Springs, AR by 03-04Z.

    ..Kerr.. 05/28/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sxp0_Yjv3Xaq9xPd2oKL_lbrroWQ3XCHVbNEqeaeSWgpdf_L1vHh1DA0CRImWdh-ppm5TsxA$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...

    LAT...LON 35039490 35469443 34859303 34289386 34019454 34309516
    34779537 35039490=20



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