Mesoscale Discussion 0778
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0817 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021
Areas affected...Parts of south central and southeastern Oklahoma
into adjacent portions of Arkansas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 217...
Valid 280117Z - 280215Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 217
SUMMARY...A more intense portion of a larger thunderstorm cluster
may pose continuing risk for potentially damaging wind gusts across
the Oklahoma/Arkansas border, between Fort Smith and De Queen, into
the Hot Springs vicinity by 10-11 PM CDT.
DISCUSSION...A cluster of stronger storms and southeastward surging
outflow, now southeast/east of the Muskogee and McAlester
vicinities, appears to have been supported during the past few hours
by a developing MCV. Westerly deep-layer mean flow may now be in
excess of 40 kt in a narrow corridor to the south of this feature,
contributing to a storm motion which probably will maintain
moderately strong southeasterly inflow of moist boundary-layer air (characterized by CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg) at least another
couple of hours. It appears that this will continue to be
accompanied by strong surface gusts approaching or exceeding severe
limits into areas near/northwest of Hot Springs, AR by 03-04Z.
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