• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0777

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu May 27 23:24:46 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 272324
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 272324=20
    TXZ000-OKZ000-280130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0777
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0624 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021

    Areas affected...Northwest Texas into the Pecos/Rio Grande Valley
    vicinity

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 216...

    Valid 272324Z - 280130Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 216
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Widely scattered strong to severe storms, including a few
    supercells, will continue to develop through mid to late evening,
    posing a risk for large hail and strong surface gusts before
    diminishing.

    DISCUSSION...Large-scale forcing for ascent appears mostly weak, and
    likely to remain so into the evening hours, but weakening
    inhibition, due to a combination of insolation and mid-level cold
    advection, has allowed for the initiation of scattered thunderstorms
    near the dryline.=20=20

    Along and east of the dryline, a corridor of deep boundary-layer
    mixing with sufficient moisture for large CAPE in excess of 3000
    J/kg has developed. This has occurred in the presence of strong
    deep-layer shear, beneath 30-50+ kt southwesterly flow in the
    500-300 mb layer. Low-level wind fields are weak, however, with
    little appreciable strengthening forecast, except perhaps in a small
    area near the Del Rio, TX vicinity.=20=20

    Given this environment, a period of continued thunderstorm
    intensification appears probable into the 01-03Z time frame, before
    the onset of boundary-layer cooling contributes to waning
    instability. This may include the evolution of additional isolated
    supercells, with strongest storms posing a risk for large hail, and
    eventually strong surface gusts before diminishing.

    ..Kerr.. 05/27/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!uvOu0H9Slafhd0mcGFQ5IDIt9c5RYleHT_lid9JNEMVNJCmggPktapJX97L3UMbqU9U8S4rS$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

    LAT...LON 32790142 33290106 33870129 34600144 35150003 33149880
    31689980 30870095 30230149 29700240 30210275 31080276
    32790142=20



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