• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0776

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu May 27 23:03:51 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 272303
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 272303=20
    MOZ000-KSZ000-280030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0776
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0603 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021

    Areas affected...parts of northeast Kansas into north-central
    Missouri

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 272303Z - 280030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A large hail/damaging wind threat is expected to continue
    across the area for a couple more hours, before storm intensity
    decreases with the onset of stabilization. Given the expected short
    duration of the severe threat, a WW issuance appears unlikely.

    DISCUSSION...Organized semi-discrete storms have matured across
    portions of northeast KS into north-central MO over the past couple
    of hours ahead of the cold front. Some of these storms have
    exhibited modest, transient rotation, with left-moving/anticyclonic
    supercell structures observed per KEAX radar data. Some severe
    weather has also occurred, including 1.5 inch hail in Clay County MO
    and 65 kt estimated winds in Leavenworth County, KS, where MRMS
    mosaic radar MESH data has also shown 1-2 inch diameter hail to be
    possible well.=20

    Recent storm intensity may be attributed to a reservoir of 1000 J/kg
    MUCAPE overlapping with up to 50 kts of effective bulk shear per
    latest mesoanalysis. However, widespread clouds, light to moderate
    rainfall, and associated cooler temperatures are also spreading
    across the area originating from the trailing precipitation region
    of a mature MCS passing to the south. The MCS related impacts, and
    overturning airmass from the present strong to severe storms are
    expected to limit the duration of the severe threat however,
    precluding a WW issuance.

    ..Squitieri/Edwards.. 05/27/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!s4CeA3PbwOclMgDvafrd7dbmu8gDnywOhI9anx14NasFvS6qvMRuUnhlVyy88FBqwkgYiO2s$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LSX...EAX...TOP...

    LAT...LON 38329588 39289511 40029465 40459371 40369249 39919148
    39449131 38979194 38249489 38329588=20



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