• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0775

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu May 27 22:34:45 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 272234
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 272234=20
    OKZ000-272330-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0775
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0534 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021

    Areas affected...Parts of central Oklahoma

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 215...

    Valid 272234Z - 272330Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 215 continues.

    SUMMARY...The evolution of an increasingly organized cluster of
    storms is possible through 7-9 PM CDT, along with a more substantive
    increase in potential for strong surface gusts near and southwest
    through south of the Oklahoma City area.

    DISCUSSION...Vigorous thunderstorm development continues above
    southward advancing convective outflow advancing into the Interstate
    40 corridor of central Oklahoma. More recent thunderstorm
    initiation is ongoing west-northwest of the Oklahoma City area,
    focused near the western-most flank of the outflow and the
    northeastern edge of a more strongly heated environment across the
    higher plains, beneath remnant elevated mixed-layer air.=20=20

    Low/mid tropospheric warm advection is focused along the periphery
    of this elevated mixed-layer air, which is gradually becoming
    suppressed southward and southwestward as troughing (most prominent
    around the 700 mb level) slowly progresses across the central Great Plains/middle Mississippi Valley region. With steep lapse rates
    near this boundary, coupled with seasonably high low-level moisture
    content, contributing to large mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 3000
    J/kg, synoptic and mesoscale forcing for ascent may contribute to
    rapidly intensifying convection during the next few hours.

    In the presence of strong deep-layer shear, a new, increasingly
    organized, upscale growing cluster of storms may evolve through
    00-02Z. If/when this occurs, convective processes may contribute to
    a more substantive increase in potential for strong surface gusts,
    which may take on an increasingly southeastward forward propagation, near/southwest through south of the Greater Oklahoma City area.

    ..Kerr.. 05/27/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oOUsJIAYTU9NUranXU86qaX52nrVMp6sD1S3uJ-5BnfeCO8rP7Po8eo-LVKfH2_H_23gBtl-$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OUN...

    LAT...LON 35629833 35069681 34499694 34289769 34849890 35449893
    35629833=20



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