Mesoscale Discussion 0775
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0534 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021
Areas affected...Parts of central Oklahoma
Concerning...Tornado Watch 215...
Valid 272234Z - 272330Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 215 continues.
SUMMARY...The evolution of an increasingly organized cluster of
storms is possible through 7-9 PM CDT, along with a more substantive
increase in potential for strong surface gusts near and southwest
through south of the Oklahoma City area.
DISCUSSION...Vigorous thunderstorm development continues above
southward advancing convective outflow advancing into the Interstate
40 corridor of central Oklahoma. More recent thunderstorm
initiation is ongoing west-northwest of the Oklahoma City area,
focused near the western-most flank of the outflow and the
northeastern edge of a more strongly heated environment across the
higher plains, beneath remnant elevated mixed-layer air.=20=20
Low/mid tropospheric warm advection is focused along the periphery
of this elevated mixed-layer air, which is gradually becoming
suppressed southward and southwestward as troughing (most prominent
around the 700 mb level) slowly progresses across the central Great Plains/middle Mississippi Valley region. With steep lapse rates
near this boundary, coupled with seasonably high low-level moisture
content, contributing to large mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 3000
J/kg, synoptic and mesoscale forcing for ascent may contribute to
rapidly intensifying convection during the next few hours.
In the presence of strong deep-layer shear, a new, increasingly
organized, upscale growing cluster of storms may evolve through
00-02Z. If/when this occurs, convective processes may contribute to
a more substantive increase in potential for strong surface gusts,
which may take on an increasingly southeastward forward propagation, near/southwest through south of the Greater Oklahoma City area.
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