• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0774

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu May 27 22:22:23 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 272222
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 272221=20
    KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-280015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0774
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0521 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021

    Areas affected...parts of northeast Arkansas...western
    Tennessee...southeast Missouri...southern Illinois...southwest Indiana...western Kentucky

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 272221Z - 280015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...An increase in thunderstorm coverage is expected as a line
    of storms approaches from the west. While a couple of damaging gusts
    and perhaps marginally severe hail may accompany some of the
    stronger storms, the severe threat is expect to remain sparse enough
    to withhold a WW issuance at this time.

    DISCUSSION...A relatively organized squall line is in progress
    across parts of southern IL into northeast AR as shown by the latest
    MRMS mosaic radar data. While portions of the squall have shown well
    developed structures over the past couple of hours (i.e. 30 dBZ echo
    tops exceeding 40 kft), the storms are approaching a less
    unstable/sheared airmass, characterized by 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE and
    effective bulk shear mainly under 35 kts. While the present
    CAPE/shear parameter space supports sustenance of the approaching
    MCS with some gusty wind/hail potential, the overall coverage of
    severe gusts/hail is expected to remain too sparse in coverage and
    intensity to warrant the issuance of a WW at this time.

    ..Squitieri/Edwards.. 05/27/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pZfmMdxIn7TtCLbYzQ3u63xlLuLrjjdrjgUCD1sgqp3KvCLSSHQSPdi6dOq-IBDhqNHw0wzD$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...MEG...LZK...

    LAT...LON 35819098 36579061 37458960 37948886 38618747 38748660
    38528598 37988572 37388606 36858666 36438742 35978818
    35468887 35328953 35259026 35819098=20



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