• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0773

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu May 27 21:52:47 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 272152
    SPC MCD 272152=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0773
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0452 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021

    Areas affected...much of central and northern Arkansas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

    Valid 272152Z - 272315Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Storm coverage and associated severe potential are
    expected to increase over the next few hours, particularly with a
    bowing segment approaching from northeast OK. A Severe Thunderstorm
    Watch will be needed soon.

    DISCUSSION...Several hours of persistent diurnal heating (evident
    via visible satellite imagery) have boosted surface temperatures to
    around 90F, per latest METAR observations. 70+ F dewpoints are in
    place, overspread by 7-8.5 C/km low-level lapse rates which in turn
    support 2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE, despite modest mid-level
    temperatures/lapse rates, as shown by 21Z mesoanalysis. Modest wind
    speeds aloft are fostering 25-35 kts of effective bulk shear per
    latest mesoanalysis/RAP forecast soundings, suggesting that some
    organization will occur with storms moving in from eastern OK.=20

    Latest KINX radar shows a loosely organized linear convective
    segment just northeast of TUL, which is poised to propagate
    southeast into the aforementioned strongly unstable airmass over the
    next couple of hours. Given the steep low-level lapse rates and
    strong instability, damaging-gust potential will persist with the
    more organized storms moving into central AR, necessitating a Severe Thunderstorm Watch. While damaging winds are expected to be the
    primary threat with the approaching storms, modest surface-700 mb
    veering with height (shown by KSRX VWPs) suggests that transient low
    to mid-level rotation/supercell potential may accompany some of the
    strongest, longest lasting storms. As such, a couple severe
    hailstones and perhaps a tornado or two are also possible.

    ..Squitieri/Edwards.. 05/27/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!p8wmO_OELITO7tQjiXaFD47S_O_NnPhz5m96jEK_JQ63sa2mm_O-T5tORAS295CPQEdbsOxU$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 34029400 35479446 36079443 36479427 36509289 36529184
    36479087 36019056 35099071 34419091 33959122 33749271

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