• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0770

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu May 27 19:51:17 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 271951
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 271950=20
    TXZ000-OKZ000-272145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0770
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0250 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021

    Areas affected...west Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 271950Z - 272145Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to
    develop across west Texas by 22Z. Large to very large hail and
    isolated damaging winds will be the main threats.

    DISCUSSION...The atmosphere continues to destabilize across western
    TX with steep lapse rates and dewpoints in the 60s F supporting
    strong instability with MLCAPE from 3000-3500 J/kg. Storms are
    already in the process of developing over the Davis mountains of
    southwest TX. Additional storms will initiate along the dryline
    through western TX and also along the southeast-advancing cold front
    across the southeast TX Panhandle. Effective bulk shear from 40-45
    kt will support supercells with large to very large hail and
    downburst winds the primary threats. A couple of tornadoes cannot be
    ruled out, but relatively small low-level hodographs should remain a
    limiting factor for a more robust tornado threat.

    ..Dial/Hart.. 05/27/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vn-Pd2IOwJNp0vq8rHVeduP7UxwBt7jgTsWy4RqV13YPQfFqA-C4nC4XKaM-BDEeB8U-xUKh$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

    LAT...LON 30550370 31350306 32520193 34090105 35170090 35670005
    34569992 32719921 29970123 30550370=20



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