• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0768

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu May 27 19:07:17 2021
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

    ------------=_1622142440-51543-1618
    Content-Type: text/plain
    Content-Transfer-Encoding: Quoted-printable

    ACUS11 KWNS 271907
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 271906=20
    ARZ000-MOZ000-272030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0768
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0206 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021

    Areas affected...the northern Arkansas vicinity

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 271906Z - 272030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms developing/spreading into northern Arkansas over
    the next 1 to 2 hours may require WW issuance.

    DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows that broken
    cloud cover persisting across northern Arkansas south of the
    southwestern Missouri convection, which has allowed diurnal heating
    to push mixed-layer CAPE values into the 200 to 2500 J/kg range
    across this area. Cumulus continues to slowly grow vertically
    across portions of northern Arkansas, with some towering cu/small
    CBs indicated over northwestern Arkansas.

    Expect storms to evolve across this area over the next 1 to 2 hours,
    initially over the northwest where visible imagery indicates outflow
    now moving southward into Benton and Carroll counties. Given
    continued destabilization, and shear sufficient for multicell
    organization and possible/weak mid-level rotation, evolving risk for
    marginal hail and gusty/locally damaging winds may be sufficient to
    warrant WW issuance.

    ..Goss/Hart.. 05/27/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!s9WlmcQ8TBLRV_DwjTVAkgya8wIt166u1XslGAvD7LVMOXrLRgd5idYs7w1pWakCeFF-EBxy$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA...

    LAT...LON 35679412 36409346 37019007 35948997 34799235 34819424
    35679412=20



    ------------=_1622142440-51543-1618
    Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
    Content-Disposition: inline
    Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

    = = =
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1622142440-51543-1618--

    --- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)