• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0766

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu May 27 18:36:45 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 271836
    SPC MCD 271836=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0766
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0136 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021

    Areas affected...portions of northwestern Missouri and eastern

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 271836Z - 271930Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms developing along the advancing cold front may pose
    local risk for gusty winds and hail. However, risk may remain isolated/limited, and thus need for a WW remains uncertain.

    DISCUSSION...Visible satellite loop shows an increase in cumulus
    growth along the slowly advancing cold front, in the wake of earlier convection/cloud cover where some heating/destabilization is
    occurring. While CAPE remains somewhat modest across this area --
    generally around 1000 J/kg, additional heating may allow enough
    instability to occur, to support a few stronger storms near the
    advancing boundary.=20=20

    Area VWPs indicate moderately strong mid-level west-southwesterlies
    -- sufficient to aid in updraft organization/rotation. As such,
    with some additional destabilization, limited/local severe risk may
    evolve, but at this time we are expecting that coverage of stronger
    storms may remain limited.

    ..Goss/Hart.. 05/27/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!p8QK3CWno0CGvazIv1YYVqI_VEGaRMebBX_vQJFea0l6oPUUoImGggQ0zxciwj7IlmUNW0GL$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 40169471 39909418 38709411 37609585 37029813 38079791
    39119609 39689522 40169471=20

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