• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0764

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu May 27 16:30:19 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 271630
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 271629=20
    ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-271730-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0764
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1129 AM CDT Thu May 27 2021

    Areas affected...eastern Texas Panhandle...Oklahoma. far southern
    Kansas and northwest Arkansas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 271629Z - 271730Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop across western
    through central Oklahoma by early afternoon and gradually spread
    east. Supercells with isolated large hail will be the initial main
    threat, but isolated damaging wind and a few tornadoes are also
    possible.

    DISCUSSION...Latest objective analysis show the atmosphere to be
    moderately to strongly unstable (2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) across
    western through central OK supported by steep mid-level lapse rates
    above rich low-level moisture with surface dewpoints in the low 70s
    F. Latest trends in radar show a few showers developing within a
    modest warm advection regime in the pre-frontal warm sector across
    western OK. While some remnant capping may still exist, convective
    inhibition should gradually weaken as temperatures rise into the low
    80s F. Rap analysis data show a mid-level jet approaching this
    region from the west, and effective bulk shear profiles will
    gradually increase to between 40 and 50 kt through the afternoon.
    This environment should support discrete supercells as the initial
    storm mode with large to very large hail likely. While low-level
    hodographs are not particularly large with 0-1 km storm relative
    helicity between 100-150 m2/s2 isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled
    out given degree of instability and a very moist boundary layer with
    relatively low LCLS. Additional storms may develop along the cold
    front by late afternoon across southern KS into northern OK and
    these will also likely become severe.

    ..Dial/Hart.. 05/27/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vXoLY0blFIQY0_ux_nuQ5Mn4J80ZKBFguX6hPFZfCNCT6NGpkXtfqufGSbJcG8cMGWCjY2I2$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

    LAT...LON 35579377 34959538 34920033 36260026 37099842 36719549
    35579377=20



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