• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0763

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu May 27 16:04:44 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 271604
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 271604=20
    ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-271730-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0763
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1104 AM CDT Thu May 27 2021

    Areas affected...portions of southeastern Kansas and northeastern
    Oklahoma across the Ozarks and into parts of southern Illinois

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 271604Z - 271730Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...A gradual increase in storm coverage/intensity -- and
    attendant severe risk -- over the next couple of hours will likely
    require WW issuance

    DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows
    widespread/ongoing convection and attendant cloud cover, and several
    outflow boundaries, from southeastern Kansas and Oklahoma east to
    the mid Mississippi Valley. The ongoing convection is occurring
    south and east of a cold front extending from a low in southwestern
    Iowa, southwestward across Kansas to the Texas Panhandle.=20=20

    Ahead of a loosely continuous, composite outflow boundary arcing
    from northwest of St. Louis westward to southwestern Missouri, and
    then into northeastern Oklahoma, some heating/destabilization is
    underway -- particularly from southern Illinois westward across the
    Ozarks. This trend should continue, resulting in a gradual increase
    in convective coverage and intensity over the next couple of hours.

    Area VWP data indicates around 30 kt low-level south-southwesterly
    flow across the warm sector, veering to west-southwesterly at mid
    levels. This is providing sufficient shear for organized/mixed-mode convection, and therefore expect severe potential -- mainly in the
    form of damaging winds and hail -- to gradually increase in concert
    with convective intensification. As such, expect WW issuance to be
    required within the next hour.

    ..Goss/Hart.. 05/27/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vlLKzMeK1_K0k2o5LXOUoDyAEhNOyeKdiSda6TLHTk5xbXmgwPtXHgkIcWkwehhkfLl54njd$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...

    LAT...LON 39608808 40009045 38679126 37909259 37659378 37619509
    37309588 36059652 35519449 35509176 36539017 39608808=20



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