Mesoscale Discussion 0759
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021
Areas affected...Parts of the Texas Panhandle and western/northern
Oklahoma into southeastern Kansas
Concerning...Tornado Watch 211...
Valid 270426Z - 270530Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 211 continues.
SUMMARY...A couple of lingering thunderstorms clusters may pose
continuing potential for strong surface gusts into the Midnight-2 AM
CDT time frame, but a general weakening of storms is expected to
proceed and a new severe weather watch does not appear needed.
DISCUSSION...Storms which generally initiated along the dryline have
either dissipated or consolidated into a couple of widely scattered
lingering clusters, ahead of lower/mid-tropospheric troughing
gradually shifting east of the Rockies into the Great Plains. This
activity is currently near the eastern periphery of a southerly 850
mb jet, which has strengthened to 35-40+ kt, but is otherwise
embedded within fairly modest (20-30 kt) southwesterly deep-layer
ambient mean flow. While potential inflow of moist air
characterized by sizable CAPE appears possible another couple of
hours, as activity progresses eastward, the strength of the inflow
may begin to weaken. Latest MRMS CAPPI data suggest that weakening
trends are already underway, and this seems likely to continue.
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