• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0758

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu May 27 02:05:14 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 270205
    SPC MCD 270204=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0758
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0904 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

    Areas affected...Parts of southern Nebraska and northern Kansas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 212...

    Valid 270204Z - 270400Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 212

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity may gradually consolidate and
    organize while developing eastward across the region through 10
    PM-Midnight CDT. Eventually, this may be accompanied by increasing
    risk for strong surface gusts, in addition to a continuing risk for
    large hail.

    DISCUSSION...As a southerly low-level jet strengthens this evening, thunderstorm development continues to increase within stronger
    lower/mid tropospheric warm advection. This is generally focused
    along the northeastern periphery of the plume of warmer elevated
    mixed-layer air emanating from the southern Rockies (which appears
    roughly delineated by 8-10 C around 700 mb), as mid-level troughing
    continues to slowly progress east of the northern Rockies.=20

    A gradual consolidation of convection appears possible through
    03-05Z, roughly centered near the Kansas/Nebraska border area, where
    inflow of moist air characterized by moderate to large CAPE
    (1500-3000 J/kg) probably will maintain vigorous intensities.=20
    Although this may be mostly rooted above a drier/more stable
    boundary layer, in the presence of strong shear within the
    convective layer, potential exists for convection to gradually
    organize, and eventually pose increasing risk for strong surface

    ..Kerr.. 05/27/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!v7Xh1SycjPdRlgJL5Kn-4KtIM7yxhGQkc2Byk4NyA2BlEYTLIatEXYPoukvL_BCtB2OpqyYj$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 41110125 41099954 40189653 39329691 38979773 39229933
    39670043 40640174 41110125=20

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