• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0757

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu May 27 00:32:39 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 270032
    SPC MCD 270032=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0757
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0732 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

    Areas affected...Parts of the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles and adjacent
    portions of southwestern Kansas/northwestern Oklahoma

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 210...211...

    Valid 270032Z - 270200Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 210, 211 continues.

    SUMMARY...Scattered severe storm development, including supercells,
    probably will continue into at least the 9-11 PM CDT time frame.

    DISCUSSION...Intense thunderstorm development along the dryline has
    become most numerous roughly west-northwest of Lubbock, TX into the
    Oklahoma Panhandle, southeast of Liberal, KS. This probably has
    been the result of somewhat stronger heating to overcome
    lower/mid-level inhibition, in addition to lift supported by weak
    mid-level troughing overspreading the high plains.=20

    Although inhibition may be in the process of increasing one again,
    as diurnal boundary-layer cooling commences, mixed-layer CAPE
    remains strong, in the presence of strong deep-layer shear aided by
    pronounced veering of lower/mid tropospheric wind fields with
    height. Coupled with southerly low-level jet strengthening to 40+
    kt, supercell storm development probably will continue into late
    evening, with some upscale growth possible.

    While deep-layer shear is strong, southwesterly ambient deep-layer
    mean flow is still a rather modest 20-30 kt across much of the
    region, so eastward progression of storms likely will remain
    relatively slow.

    ..Kerr.. 05/27/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qddb1DtcyscsIr5_ufT39JD24MoB5Eju2PbC7k4CVbSxOGb9WvYGZuzq1NhcDVM6PvziQHvC$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 33930216 35430180 37749973 37559885 35549985 34220075
    33840166 33930216=20

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