• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0755

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed May 26 22:45:13 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 262245
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 262244=20
    KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-270045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0755
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0544 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

    Areas affected...Parts of northeastern Colorado...southwestern Nebraska...northwestern and north central Kansas

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 209...210...

    Valid 262244Z - 270045Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 209, 210 continues.

    SUMMARY...Increasing and intensifying thunderstorm development into
    the 7-9 PM CDT time frame. This will probably continue to include a
    few supercells with increasing tornadic potential, along with
    potential for the evolution of organizing thunderstorm clusters.=20
    Areas to the east of the Tornado Watches will continue to monitored
    for additional severe weather watches.

    DISCUSSION...Although isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are
    now initiating along the dryline, a much more substantive increase
    in thunderstorms is underway along a corridor from the Russell, KS
    vicinity northwestward through the McCook and Scottsbluff areas of
    western Nebraska. This appears focused within a broad zone of
    lower/mid tropospheric warm advection, northeast of somewhat warmer
    and more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air (as inferred from
    700 mb thermal fields).

    Storms near Russell also appear focused near a zone of locally
    enhanced boundary-layer convergence, near the eastern periphery of a
    20-30 kt southerly 850 mb jet, which is forecast to strengthen to 40
    kt this evening. While there may be a tendency for this convection
    to begin to advect eastward, in the presence of 20-30 kt
    west-southwesterly ambient deep-layer mean flow, until the low-level
    jet begins to veer later this evening, strong storm development
    probably will remain focused near/west-northwest of the Russell
    vicinity.

    Otherwise, a general increase and intensification of thunderstorm
    activity probably will continue across parts of the Nebraska
    Panhandle and southwestern into south central Nebraska through
    00-02Z, with a tendency for activity to advect east/northeast of the
    Tornado Watch area. However, strongest storms, including discrete
    supercells and upscale growing clusters, probably will remain
    focused near the edge of the warmer/more strongly capping elevated
    mixed-layer air, where the more moist and strongly heated
    boundary-layer is characterized by large CAPE (up to 3000 J/kg).=20=20

    As the southerly low-level jet begins to strengthen by early
    evening, the risk for tornadoes in discrete supercells will probably
    continue to increase, include potential for a couple of strong
    tornadoes.

    ..Kerr.. 05/26/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!q6dxCEYDTS2vaYJH9S706GKZ0hftrw57Q4xF6kHgjr0FF_13pc-Cd6NdTNeKhlnGA7G6pJhX$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...BOU...CYS...

    LAT...LON 41500332 41890128 40199887 39159704 38459875 38990054
    40200205 40930315 41500332=20



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