• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0751

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed May 26 20:24:41 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 262024
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 262024=20
    OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-262200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0751
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0324 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

    Areas affected...portions of the Texas Panhandle and South
    Plains...and into portions of western Oklahoma

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 262024Z - 262200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Severe risk is expected to gradually increase across the
    Texas South Plains and into the Panhandle over the next couple of
    hours. WW may be required.

    DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite and radar loops show initial
    convective development underway over the Roosevelt County NM
    vicinity, near the state line. The storms appear to be initiating
    just west of an eastward-mixing dryline as high-based convection,
    but with time, additional development is expected eastward into
    Texas, where a very unstable airmass (3000 to 4000 J/kg mixed-layer
    CAPE) resides.

    Moderate/veering flow with height across this region appears
    sufficient -- given the degree of CAPE east of the dryline -- to
    support rotating storms, and attendant risk for very large hail.=20
    Damaging winds will also be possible -- particularly later if storms
    grow upscale into linear segments locally.

    ..Goss/Hart.. 05/26/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!v6FlfWpMmJ_v84Qn_0suYy8HIYzs_40xSgjJr8hwrvOWPC3GsqibmhuG5WdQPMCX9zAibPVP$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 33550314 34550260 35360224 36870158 36960104 36739917
    36069910 33430081 33100296 33550314=20



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