• Indian-N: TC Yaas W010 Fi

    From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Wed May 26 16:01:00 2021
    WTIO31 PGTW 260900
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (YAAS) WARNING NR 010//
    RMKS/
    1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (YAAS) WARNING NR 010
    01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
    WARNING POSITION:
    260600Z --- NEAR 21.6N 87.0E
    MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
    POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
    POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
    PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    REPEAT POSIT: 21.6N 87.0E
    ---
    FORECASTS:
    12 HRS, VALID AT:
    261800Z --- 22.5N 86.2E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
    24 HRS, VALID AT:
    270600Z --- 23.6N 85.3E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
    REMARKS:
    260900Z POSITION NEAR 21.8N 86.8E.
    26MAY21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (YAAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 98 NM
    SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
    OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
    (MSI) DEPICTS THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE NOW MOVING OVER LAND AND
    BEGINNING THE DECAYING PROCESS AS IT TRANSITS OVER THE RUGGED
    TERRAIN. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED
    ON THE LLCC FEATURE IN THE COMPOSITE WEATHER RADAR FROM PARADIP,
    INDIA, AND ANALYSIS OF LOCAL WEATHER OBSERVATIONS. THE INITIAL
    INTENSITY OF 55KTS IS BASED ON THE OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF MULTIPLE
    AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES BEFORE LANDFALL WITH T3.5/55KTS FROM PGTW,
    4.0/65KTS FROM DEMS, T3.8/61KTS BY THE ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
    (ADT), ALONG WITH AN OBSERVATION FROM BALASORE, INDIA OF 45KTS.
    ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 02B RESIDES UNDER WEAKER
    POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30-35KTS),
    CONTRIBUTING TO THE RAPID DECAY AS THE STORM DISSIPATING BY TAU 24.
    NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF
    29NM AT TAU 12 DUE TO THE FAR SOLE RIGHT OUTLIER OF AFUM. THE MODEL
    SPREAD WIDENS TO 66NM WITH AFUM BY TAU 24 OR 29NM WITHOUT, LENDING
    OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK THAT IS LAID JUST
    TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET AFUM. THIS IS THE FINAL
    WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOONWRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI.
    THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
    NNNN
    --- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)