• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0749

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed May 26 18:47:40 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 261847
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 261847=20
    KSZ000-COZ000-262015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0749
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0147 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

    Areas affected...portions of western and central Kansas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 261847Z - 262015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Current convective trends suggest that additional storm
    development may occur across portions of western and central Kansas
    in the short term, that could prompt the need for Tornado Watch
    issuance.

    DISCUSSION...CAM guidance remains suggestive that appreciable storm
    development across Kansas remains several hours in the future, late
    this afternoon. However, the most recent updraft development over
    Ellis and Trego counties appears robust, and is occurring in close
    proximity to the surface warm front -- likely where some outflow
    reinforcement of the front has occurred as a result of earlier
    storms farther to the northwest. Meanwhile, the cu field along and
    south of this boundary -- i.e. across western and central Kansas --
    continues to gradually increase, suggestive of sustained mixing, and possible/additional storm development more quickly than models would
    suggest.

    Should storm development near/south of the warm front increase
    beyond just the Trego/Ellis county convection, the
    moist/substantially destabilizing environment (3000 to 3500 J/kg
    mixed-layer CAPE now indicated) could result in a rapid ramp-up in
    severe potential. In addition, with recent VWP data from the KDDC
    WSR-88D indicative of low-level southeasterly/veering flow in the
    0-2km layer quite a bit stronger than RUC forecasts, potential for
    strong updraft rotation -- and associated tornado potential -- may
    warrant tornado watch issuance earlier than previously anticipated.

    ..Goss/Hart.. 05/26/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tJ3i29hbl66LyxWAs-SKA5JHv-lYAxBqDIlSIs4arCei19hssEtkAejUKDV6aSn-a_gCVGoC$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...PUB...

    LAT...LON 39780157 39790092 39299966 38889822 37879677 37359801
    37229973 37520113 38140199 39140277 39840204 39780157=20



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