• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0747

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed May 26 17:45:38 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 261745
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 261745=20
    NEZ000-COZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-261945-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0747
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1245 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

    Areas affected...portions of eastern Wyoming and northeastern
    Colorado...and into the Nebraska Panhandle

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 261745Z - 261945Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Initial storm development is expected across portions of
    the central High Plains, focused on eastern WY/northeastern CO,
    within the next 1 to 2 hours. WW will likely be required.

    DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a warm front -- extending
    from a low over central Wyoming -- draped southeastward across
    southeastern Wyoming and far northeastern Colorado into northwestern
    Kansas. As cirrus has thinned across eastern Wyoming, heating of
    the modestly moist boundary layer has resulted in 500 to 1000 J/kg
    mixed-layer CAPE development along the boundary.=20=20

    As the upper circulation indicated by WV imagery near the
    northwestern corner of Wyoming continues eastward, increasing ascent
    -- focused near the surface low and associated warm front -- to
    permit storm development to occur. The increase in ascent is
    evident across the higher terrain of southeastern Wyoming within a
    visible satellite loop, where cumulus has begun to grow/increase.=20
    This trend should continue, and coupled with continued
    heating/modest destabilization with time, storm development is
    expected to occur.

    With southeasterly low-level flow in the vicinity of the front
    beneath mid-level west-southwesterlies that should gradually
    strengthen with time, shear will favor rotating storms initially.=20
    Large hail, and locally damaging winds, would be the primary severe
    risks. With time, linear/upscale growth is expected, as storms move
    into the Nebraska Panhandle late this afternoon/this evening --
    suggesting increasingly widespread potential for damaging winds.

    ..Goss/Hart.. 05/26/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oqEVVTCMDHQZNdI6F9JyeTAGkfFzl9dv0eVCUkEAV9Swhw349mwaOCT2Zd5XI11kETxKG0Sz$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...

    LAT...LON 43520502 42970353 42320224 41520161 40190176 39970278
    39970495 41420515 42920601 43520502=20



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