• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0746

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed May 26 17:21:42 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 261721
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 261721=20
    NJZ000-MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-261845-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0746
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1221 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

    Areas affected...northern VA...MD...DE and far southern NJ

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 261721Z - 261845Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Locally damaging winds are possible with thunderstorms
    this afternoon into early evening.

    DISCUSSION...Strong heating through early afternoon has allowed
    temperatures to warm into the 80s to low 90s amid upper 60s to low
    70s surface dewpoints. This is aiding in weak to moderate
    destabilization with up to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE present across the
    region. Isolated convection is developing over the higher terrain of
    WV and a cluster of thunderstorms is expected to form over the next
    couple of hours across northern VA/western MD. Effective shear will
    remain weak over the area, with around 20-25 kt currently forecast. Nevertheless, very steep low level lapse rates will promote strong
    downdraft potential. Should cold pool development occur, there is
    some potential that a better organized cluster could develop and
    grow upscale as it shifts across the Chesapeake Bay toward the
    DE/southern NJ coast early this evening. Convective trends will be
    monitored and a watch may be needed in the next couple of hours.

    ..Leitman/Hart.. 05/26/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qoprZZFNa3i5MN4gGW6hJ4p5NuazelisWgx2aw6Q24oF4N6bVzkH1ISwU_Tq-8pMNONeNQW0$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

    LAT...LON 39697687 39677594 39677559 39497519 39257483 39027477
    38767476 38417494 38257520 38107571 37957616 38077760
    38157789 38257824 38417844 38637852 39007844 39357827
    39567803 39737752 39697687=20



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