• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0745

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed May 26 16:16:37 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 261616
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 261616=20
    VTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-261815-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0745
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1116 AM CDT Wed May 26 2021

    Areas affected...eastern Ohio/western Pennsylvania northeast to
    Vermont

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 261616Z - 261815Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...A continued/gradual increase in convective coverage and
    intensity is expected across the upper Ohio Valley/central and
    northern Appalachians this afternoon. As potential for locally
    stronger wind gusts increases, WW issuance will likely be required.

    DISCUSSION...Scattered to broken cloud cover across much of the
    Northeast is facilitating diurnal heating/gradual destabilization
    across the discussion area, with pre-frontal convection now
    initiating from upstate NY southwestward into western PA at this
    time. As the upper short-wave trough advances across eastern Canada
    and the Great Lakes with time, large-scale ascent will support
    further increases in storm coverage/intensity with time. Aided by moderate/roughly unidirectional west-southwesterly flow through a
    deep layer, eventual upscale growth of storms into small bands, and
    some cold pool development/interaction, is expected -- along with attendant/local increases in risk for damaging winds. Given this
    potential, WW issuance will likely be required.

    ..Goss/Hart.. 05/26/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tHYF6nF3TriBA3ONp93hQ1-EO6o8RkR_QH_nPi4-ysTD-P-ZWEb15rfn6BzxxUaEhNsmrm7h$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

    LAT...LON 44377228 44397360 43237663 43257723 42957842 41588122
    40098176 39808027 40057844 41107577 43077261 44377228=20



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