• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0744

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed May 26 15:15:07 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 261515
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 261514=20
    KSZ000-NEZ000-261615-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0744
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1014 AM CDT Wed May 26 2021

    Areas affected...portions of northwestern Kansas/southwestern
    Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 261514Z - 261615Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Local risk for hail is evident, though WW issuance is not
    anticipated in the short term.

    DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a few storms that have
    developed over the past hour across a portion of northwestern Kansas
    near KGLD. The storms appear to be slightly elevated, just to the
    cool side of a warm front analyzed across west-central
    Kansas/northeastern Colorado. The development appears to be tied to
    a slight backing/increase in low-level flow -- and associated warm
    advection, apparently in response to a very weak/subtle mid-level
    disturbance crossing Colorado at this time.=20=20

    Steep lapse rates aloft/ample CAPE will support a continuation of
    robust updrafts locally, though passage of the aforementioned
    disturbance over the next couple of hours suggests that this
    convective flare-up may be short-lived. Most CAM runs support the
    idea of this being a limited/transient uptick in convection, with
    the primary initiation of more substantial/widespread storms to
    occur later this afternoon. In the mean time, aided by favorable thermodynamics and ample cloud-layer shear, large hail will be
    possible locally with one or two stronger/rotating storms.

    ..Goss/Hart.. 05/26/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!s5dx4Ou6wnC-1nech1xXpxJ_ks-meaY0PxL0cBR-v-m3dF85h6RliD3qqnHy2hL_JcZ4RSn_$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...

    LAT...LON 39980187 40430149 40460047 40049988 39450036 39080134
    39150181 39350204 39980187=20



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