• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0743

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed May 26 05:44:03 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 260544
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 260543=20
    OKZ000-TXZ000-260715-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0743
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1243 AM CDT Wed May 26 2021

    Areas affected...Eastern TX Panhandle...Far southwest OK.

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 260543Z - 260715Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated hail is possible for the next hour or so with the thunderstorms ongoing over the eastern TX Panhandle and far
    southwest OK.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed quickly from the central
    TX Panhandle southeastward into far southwest OK, fostered by the
    collision of two outflow boundaries. This development occurred
    within an area of strong buoyancy and minimal convective inhibition,
    with mesoanalysis estimating MLCAPE around 2500 J/kg and MLCIN near
    -50 J/kg. Areas farther east have significantly more convective
    inhibition as well as slightly weaker low-level southerly flow.
    Given the less favorable dynamics and lack of persistent forcing for
    ascent, the expectation is for these storms to gradually diminish
    over the next hour or two. A weakening trend is already apparent
    with the western cells. Some hail is possible with these storms,
    particularly the cell over Jackson County OK, over the next hour.

    ..Mosier/Grams.. 05/26/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pvwEKBFuK-VecikVT27TeXo7rJlkypLknWZ63zxH0LarpwNi57jaK1xy2U4KHlSKKndp_5zE$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

    LAT...LON 35040169 35340099 34779860 33999888 34070022 34530167
    35040169=20



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