• Indian-N: TC Yaas W008

    From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Tue May 25 19:45:00 2021
    WTIO31 PGTW 252100
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (YAAS) WARNING NR 008//
    RMKS/
    1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (YAAS) WARNING NR 008
    01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
    WARNING POSITION:
    251800Z --- NEAR 20.3N 87.8E
    MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
    POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
    POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
    SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
    PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    REPEAT POSIT: 20.3N 87.8E
    ---
    FORECASTS:
    12 HRS, VALID AT:
    260600Z --- 21.5N 87.1E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
    24 HRS, VALID AT:
    261800Z --- 22.5N 86.1E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
    36 HRS, VALID AT:
    270600Z --- 23.6N 85.0E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
    REMARKS:
    252100Z POSITION NEAR 20.6N 87.6E.
    25MAY21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (YAAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 142
    NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
    AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
    SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND A WELL-
    DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT HAS MAINTAINED
    OVERALL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE AND DEGREE OF WRAP, ALBEIT WITH EARLY
    SIGNS OF DECAY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
    BASED ON LLCC FEATURE IN THE COMPOSITE WEATHER RADAR FROM PARADIP,
    INDIA AND IN THE 251745Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE PASS. THE INITIAL
    INTENSITY REMAINS AT 65KTS WHICH IS SET WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE HEDGING
    SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55KTS), THE
    ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) OF T3.7 (59KTS), THE SATELLITE
    CONSENSUS (SATCON) ESTIMATE OF 61KTS, AND REFLECTS THE SUSTAINED
    INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 02B IS
    NOW UNDER AN AREA OF WEAKER OUTFLOW ALOFT AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
    SHEAR (15-20KTS) WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO GRADUAL WEAKENING AS THE
    STORM INTERACTS WITH THE LAND. THESE FACTORS ARE OFFSET BY WARM (30-31
    C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC 02B WILL REMAIN AT ITS PEAK INTENSITY
    OF 65KTS AS IT TRACKS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
    PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. AT ABOUT TAU 12,
    TC 02B IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE ESTUARY OF BUDHABALANGA RIVER, INDIA. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL
    RAPIDLY DECAYING DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND FULLY DISSIPATE BY TAU
    36. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A CROSS-TRACK
    SPREAD OF 15NM AT TAU 12, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC
    FORECAST TRACK THAT IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
    MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
    AT 260300Z, 260900Z, 261500Z AND 262100Z.//
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