• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0737

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue May 25 21:41:03 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 252140
    SPC MCD 252140=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0737
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0440 PM CDT Tue May 25 2021

    Areas affected...Northern Louisiana

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 252140Z - 252245Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A strong to near-severe gust (35-45 kts) possible with a
    small bowing segment now east of Shreveport. Decreasing shear
    downstream will likely mean the activity becomes more disorganized
    with time.

    DISCUSSION...KSHV VAD profiles show around 50-60 kts at around 2-3
    km within the last 30-45 minutes with the passage of a small bowing
    segment. Buoyancy and low-level lapse rates just downstream of this
    activity are sufficient for a strong to perhaps near-severe wind
    gust (35-45 kts) over the next 1-2 hours. Shear, both deep-layer and
    low-level, are not overly strong. This activity probably will begin
    to become more disorganized beyond that 1-2 hour time frame.

    ..Wendt/Edwards.. 05/25/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tadO7L4oZmTk11K0oJ7ga8U6CH1rS7wTRV0cCq4G-Rg9Ai4YOV0CsbWCGrUR3pb0QYyZrQc2$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 32289265 31929331 31879364 31999393 32259392 32719387
    32969363 33009301 33019277 32799243 32449255 32289265=20

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