• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0736

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue May 25 19:57:04 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 251956
    SPC MCD 251956=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0736
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0256 PM CDT Tue May 25 2021

    Areas affected...portions of the TX Panhandle and South Plains

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 251956Z - 252130Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected in
    the next couple of hours. Locally strong gusts and hail are possible
    with the strongest storms.

    DISCUSSION...A broad area of cumulus over parts of the TX
    Panhandle/South Plains vicinity has shown signs of deepening over
    the past 30-60 minutes per visible satellite loops. This activity is
    developing within an axis of moderate instability, and near a
    modified outflow boundary and weak surface trough. Latest
    mesoanalysis as a 19z RAOB from AMA indicates little inhibition
    remains over the region. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms
    are likely to develop within the next 1-2 hours. Effective shear
    remains weak across the region, with only around 20-25 kt indicated
    in forecast soundings. While this may limit overall longevity of
    organized cells, degree of instability combined with steep midlevel
    lapse rates should support a least a couple of strong to severe
    cells. Steep low level lapse rates, with a well-mixed sub-cloud
    layer will promote strong downdraft and gusty outflow winds are
    possible in addition to hail. Convective trends will be monitored
    for possible watch issuance within the next couple of hours.

    ..Leitman/Guyer.. 05/25/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!taWA4bNsGst0SOg3DNcYSxASzFNpRbSqclcM6UC39Rn8h32rLOlu7tszOMA3UWcw9PoQVkpJ$=
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    LAT...LON 33140081 32640108 32480146 32470181 32470198 32600234
    32780243 32980246 33460241 34330217 35170192 35370182
    35750156 35920123 35890096 35700064 35460047 35100040
    34110053 33800060 33140081=20

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