• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0735

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue May 25 19:16:06 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 251915
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 251915=20
    MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-252115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0735
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0215 PM CDT Tue May 25 2021

    Areas affected...portions of eastern Minnesota and into northwestern
    Wisconsin

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 251915Z - 252115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...A gradual increase in storm coverage and associated severe
    potential is expected over the next couple of hours. A WW may be
    required.

    DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a cold front extending
    from western Ontario across eastern Minnesota, which continues to
    progress eastward. Ahead of the front, gradual clearing has
    resulted heating/destabilization, with 1000 to 1500 J/kg mixed-layer
    CAPE now indicated across Wisconsin and southeastern Minnesota.=20=20

    The 18Z MPX RAOB also reflects the heating/destabilization that is
    occurring, with a nearly uncapped boundary layer indicated, and well
    over 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE. Correspondingly, bands of TCU/CB
    are evolving along and ahead of the front, with a continued/gradual
    convective increase expected over the next 1 to 2 hours.

    As storms evolve, updraft intensity will likely be aided by
    favorably strong speed shear resulting from increasing southwesterly
    flow with height through the lower and middle troposphere. As a
    result, locally gusty/damaging winds and hail will become
    increasingly likely with time, with wind potential greatest where
    any linear/banding evolution can occur. While CAM guidance remains inconsistent with respect to eventual storm coverage, we will
    continue to monitor convective evolution, with an eye toward
    possible WW issuance this afternoon.

    ..Goss/Guyer.. 05/25/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!q657Igln-Q6mu1ipGftTZ8CDbL9XZJWif00u6TrbEKMlbBlNWm3LwIGPPAwB23jLATn1a7rO$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

    LAT...LON 48098965 46478921 44279008 43899341 44079355 45019278
    46729159 48099086 48098965=20



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