• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0734

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue May 25 19:03:03 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 251902
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 251902=20
    TXZ000-252100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0734
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0202 PM CDT Tue May 25 2021

    Areas affected...southwest Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 251902Z - 252100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated strong wind gusts and hail are possible this
    afternoon across parts of southwest Texas near/east of the Davis
    Mountains.

    DISCUSSION...Isolated convection is developing near the Davis
    Mountains/Marfa vicinity in southwest Texas this afternoon. While
    capping is still an issue across the region per latest mesoanalysis
    and regional forecast soundings, as the dryline continues to mix
    eastward over the next couple of hours, this should aid in
    weakening/erosion of the cap. Steep midlevel lapse rates greater
    than 8 C/km are aiding in moderate destabilization across the
    region. While this will aid in development of robust updrafts,
    overall shear remains weak across the region. As storms develop and
    move off of the higher terrain to the south of the Midland vicinity,
    a couple of strong to severe cells are possible. Steep low level
    lapse rates and well-mixed sub-cloud layer will aid in strong gust
    potential, and steep midlevel lapse rates/sufficient instability
    could result in a few instances of large hail. Given then weak shear environment and potential for some weak inhibition to remain, storms
    may have trouble remaining intense for a long period of time. As
    such, a watch is not immediately anticipated, but may become
    necessary depending on convective trends.

    ..Leitman/Guyer.. 05/25/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!ttUfFOebBk6Z3w29tqdT3mykmZBRY8aw5pgLr7Sq6a_kbFBGfhY4ztR2l2MnqCTAlY3i2S79$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

    LAT...LON 30050173 29510216 29050298 29050344 29410385 29840401
    30360412 30940401 31310371 31530327 31640265 31530213
    31290183 30770171 30050173=20



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