• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0733

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue May 25 17:33:31 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 251733
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 251732=20
    ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-251930-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0733
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1232 PM CDT Tue May 25 2021

    Areas affected...far southeast OK into northeast TX

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 251732Z - 251930Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated strong gusts are possible through the afternoon
    across far southeast OK into northeast TX.

    DISCUSSION...Strong heating during the morning and early afternoon
    has allowed temperatures to warm into the upper 70s and low 80s amid
    upper 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints. This is aiding in weak to
    moderate destabilization across the region, and new convective
    development has been noted in radar and satellite imagery ahead of a
    remnant MCS and associated MCV across north Texas. Deep layer flow
    is not particularly strong, and effective shear is expected to
    remain modest. Nevertheless, adequate instability coupled with high
    PW values and the influence of the eastward-advancing MCV near the
    Red River, should support isolated to widely scattered strong
    convection. This activity could produce wind gusts to around 40-45
    kt through the afternoon. Low level shear also will remain weak, but
    backed low level flow ahead of the MCV is resulting in small, but
    favorably curved low level hodographs. Given the moist low level
    environment and moderate low level instability, a brief tornado also
    could occur with any stronger/better organized cell. Overall, the
    lack of stronger shear should limit a more organized threat, with
    stronger cells being somewhat transient in nature. A watch is not
    expected at this time.

    ..Leitman/Guyer.. 05/25/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rQp1xOrzr-WVgHLUTakK6E6T-DXptZ0Tzr_P5ORbzoH7s2BU8HCJBH9KdhXOrxqcXJK_uRMg$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...

    LAT...LON 32849650 33659628 34289592 34389579 34529543 34539468
    34229438 33449430 32449444 31629495 31099584 30809682
    30989721 31299736 31489734 31929674 32849650=20



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