• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0732

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue May 25 09:05:29 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 250905
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 250904=20
    KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-251100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0732
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0404 AM CDT Tue May 25 2021

    Areas affected...Northwest/North-Central KS

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 250904Z - 251100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A few stronger storms are possible over the next hour or
    two across northwest KS.

    DISCUSSION...Elevated thunderstorms have quickly developed over the
    past half hour across far northwest KS as warm-air advection
    augments large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to a modest
    shortwave trough. Mesoanalysis estimates max mid-level (i.e. 2-6 km
    AGL) lapse rates are 7 to 7.5 deg C per km, which support moderate
    buoyancy and MUCAPE around 1500 J/kg. This region is also on the
    southern edge of slightly stronger mid-level flow, which is
    contributing to effective bulk shear around 25 kt. These conditions
    are marginally supportive of a few stronger storms which could
    produce hail.=20

    However, the general expectation is for the southerly low to
    mid-level flow associated with the warm-air advection to weaken over
    the next few hours, with this lack of ascent leading to relatively
    short-lived storms. Additionally, surface observations over
    northeast CO suggest the cold front has begun to push southward
    across the central High Plains, resulting in a less favorable
    thermodynamic environment over western portions of this thunderstorm
    cluster.

    ..Mosier/Grams.. 05/25/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qqCxOUaKey5ck56mEn3m_MpIxajEVcGn3S41RUFRAdE4tuv-qJNrO_ekP_-UYYeZBKQhZ2-d$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GID...DDC...GLD...

    LAT...LON 39060234 39740230 40060084 40029952 39579927 39080011
    38870199 39060234=20



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