• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0731

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue May 25 04:43:58 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 250443
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 250443=20
    TXZ000-250645-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0731
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1143 PM CDT Mon May 24 2021

    Areas affected...portions of northwest Texas.

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 250443Z - 250645Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated, locally severe gusts are possible across parts
    of northwest Texas through about 0630Z. A watch is not anticipated
    due to limited coverage/duration.

    DISCUSSION...The merger of several multicellular thunderstorm
    clusters near and just above the Caprock, over the last 1-2 hours,
    has led to a loosely organized, bowing, small MCS surging eastward
    off the Caprock and onto the northern Low Rolling Plains of
    northwest Texas. As the merger was underway, a West Texas Mesonet
    site in Crosby County recorded a 53-kt gust.=20=20=20

    Over the last hour, LUB/LDR radar velocities have indicated a
    rear-inflow jet over portions of Motley, King, Cottle, and Dickens
    Counties around a mile above ground level. How much of this flow is
    reaching the surface is uncertain, as other mesonet sites have
    clocked subsevere gusts; however, localized winds near or briefly
    exceeding severe limits may occur as the complex proceeds eastward
    toward Wilbarger, Baylor and perhaps parts of adjacent counties,
    before it substantially weakens. Deep shear and ambient flow aloft
    are weak, and the low-level jet will remain largely orthogonal to
    the storm-motion vector. However, with weak MLCINH still evident
    based on modified model soundings (in a major 00Z RAOB data void), cold-pool-driven forced ascent may sustain this activity for another
    1-2 hours.

    ..Edwards.. 05/25/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tkuxrZkDGinaEqd0TwgK27CLxcxJDS6iLUeCnkMWWPpKwjAroQjHzGqPSYdMUonjHNcF2WAx$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...

    LAT...LON 33510070 33780019 34130006 34380027 34269965 33929902
    33479904 33349979 33510070=20



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