• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0730

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue May 25 04:41:43 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 250441
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 250441=20
    KSZ000-COZ000-250615-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0730
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1141 PM CDT Mon May 24 2021

    Areas affected...west through northwest KS through far eastern CO

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 250441Z - 250615Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms developing over western KS and far eastern CO may
    become capable of producing a few instances of large hail. At this
    time, a WW issuance will probably not be needed, but trends will
    continue to be monitored.

    DISCUSSION...An isolated storm has formed over western KS in Greeley
    county, and additional storms will likely develop in association
    with augmented isentropic ascent resulting from a strengthening
    southerly low-level jet interacting with a stalled front. The
    atmosphere in this region remains moderately unstable with 1500-2000
    J/kg MUCAPE, 7-7.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates and 30-40 kt effective
    bulk shear. This environment might support a few updrafts capable of
    producing isolated large hail next few hours.

    ..Dial/Edwards.. 05/25/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qpvaz5Wt6_8EzQnxru16U4L-Rr-0OeTrB193vallRGMf24QYIColVVzPJ0411JnZ0pd_AgNq$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...

    LAT...LON 38440128 38390211 38960247 39520236 39600160 39170113
    38440128=20



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