• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0728

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue May 25 01:08:32 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 250108
    SPC MCD 250107=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0728
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0807 PM CDT Mon May 24 2021

    Areas affected...Southwest Kansas

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 200...

    Valid 250107Z - 250230Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 200 continues.

    SUMMARY...A narrow window for tornado potential still exists in
    southwestern Kansas as the low-level jet increases. Some potential
    for upscale growth exists. This activity could push eastward. Trends
    will be monitored for a possible severe thunderstorm watch later
    this evening for parts of southwestern/south-central Kansas.

    DISCUSSION...Two supercells are ongoing in southwestern Kansas, the
    strongest of which is located along the Kearny/Finney County line.
    Given that this activity has remained discrete, the tornado
    potential will continue for the next 1-2 hours. The strongest
    increase in the low-level jet will not likely occur until after 10
    PM CDT, which will also mean the boundary layer will be increasingly
    stable at that time. Even so, there will be modest increases in
    low-level hodograph size this evening. Eastward progression is not
    likely to be significant initially given the capping on the 00Z DDC
    sounding, though activity could potentially move into Gray County.
    If activity can congeal and develop a cold pool, more eastward
    propagation would be possible. This activity would see a greater
    threat for damaging winds and isolated large hail. Conditions will
    be monitored for a possible severe thunderstorm watch to the east
    later this evening.

    ..Wendt.. 05/25/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qxNgHvqQRiI-tr9ef4rLb1AcvaU0taz14SH7T-4Jg3ILUTyeBPa-61W7Wem62vs4aViHMp04$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 38020196 38230151 38230079 37820013 37250022 37040045
    37130172 37360203 38020196=20

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