• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0726

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon May 24 23:44:56 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 242344
    SPC MCD 242344=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0726
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0644 PM CDT Mon May 24 2021

    Areas affected...west Texas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 201...

    Valid 242344Z - 250115Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 201

    SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and downburst winds remain likely with
    storms developing across west Texas through 01Z. Primary threat will
    probably transition to damaging wind toward mid evening.

    DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms continue developing along the
    dryline across west Texas where the strongest heating, mixing and
    convergence has occurred west of the Lubbock area. Farther north the
    19Z RAOB from Amarillo showed a pronounced capping inversion, and
    thunderstorm development has been delayed due in part to somewhat
    cooler surface temperatures. VWP data indicate weak effective bulk
    shear on the order of 25 kt supporting mostly multicells. However,
    up to 35 kt effective bulk shear with northward extent toward the
    Panhandle might support some marginal supercell structures. Visible
    satellite imagery shows a westward-moving boundary from the eastern
    TX Panhandle southward through northwest TX. This boundary
    demarcates the westward surge of higher dewpoints. It is likely that
    this feature will eventually merge with some of the outflows
    produced by the storms in west TX, at which time a rapid upscale
    growth into a liner MCS might occur toward mid evening. The MCS
    could be sustained into a portion of the overnight by a
    strengthening southerly low-level jet.

    ..Dial.. 05/24/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qgi_5JjM7JAy4Efu3lp0W8sRFlPIn4XF4wfXcQibThW0gX00IpVTxBnYydbVR08yZdByVuiG$=
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    LAT...LON 32850281 34090240 35280238 35910203 35970140 35630111
    34850096 33460107 32900133 32440194 32460250 32850281=20

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