• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0722

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon May 24 20:08:28 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 242008
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 242007=20
    TXZ000-NMZ000-242200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0722
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0307 PM CDT Mon May 24 2021

    Areas affected...TX Panhandle/South Plains and portions of eastern
    NM

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 242007Z - 242200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are expected to
    develop this afternoon and become more widespread this evening.=20
    Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary risks. Trends are
    being monitored for a Severe Thunderstorm Watch prior to 21-22z.

    DISCUSSION...Moderate/pockets of strong MLCAPE has developed across
    the Texas Panhandle/adjacent South Plains this afternoon, to the
    east of a dryline near the TX/NM border. The supplemental 19z
    Amarillo sounding sampled steepening mid-level lapse rates but also
    a notable cap. Current expectations are for at least scattered
    thunderstorms to develop by 21-22z along the front/dryline as
    continued heating helps remove CINH. Although generally weak
    southwesterly mid-level flow exists over the region, effective shear
    of around 20-25 kts will be sufficient for intense multicell
    structures and perhaps transient supercells given the degree of
    instability. Large hail and damaging gusts will be possible
    initially, along with at least some risk for a brief tornado for a
    storm along the dryline. Upscale growth into a quasi-linear complex
    with time should result in an increase in the severe wind potential,
    with a continued large hail risk with the strongest convective
    elements.

    Convective trends will be monitored for the possibility of a watch
    prior to 21-22z.

    ..Bunting/Guyer.. 05/24/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qGikzIQPy_WdLNoSLs41t-PoFqZsvvVM1xfonCi-gom79oxigyynISyuqGkBHj5MyrFhulZl$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 35140294 36120290 36410214 36430107 36310061 35880024
    34570010 33420012 32940070 32600125 32510195 32550253
    32690289 32970319 34760298 35140294=20



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