• Indian-N: TC02B W001

    From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Mon May 24 15:22:00 2021
    WTIO31 PGTW 240300
    1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (TWO) WARNING NR 001
    01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
    WARNING POSITION:
    240000Z --- NEAR 16.0N 89.8E
    MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
    POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
    POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
    SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
    PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    REPEAT POSIT: 16.0N 89.8E
    ---
    FORECASTS:
    12 HRS, VALID AT:
    241200Z --- 16.8N 89.7E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
    24 HRS, VALID AT:
    250000Z --- 17.9N 89.3E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
    36 HRS, VALID AT:
    251200Z --- 19.1N 88.7E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
    EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
    48 HRS, VALID AT:
    260000Z --- 20.4N 87.9E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
    72 HRS, VALID AT:
    270000Z --- 22.3N 86.1E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
    LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
    96 HRS, VALID AT:
    280000Z --- 23.8N 83.6E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
    REMARKS:
    240300Z POSITION NEAR 16.2N 89.8E.
    24MAY21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 404 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT
    07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (TWO) IS
    SHOWING PRONOUNCED CONSOLIDATION AND TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE
    FIELDS AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). PREVIOUSLY,
    IT CARRIED THE SIGNATURE AND BROAD WIND FIELDS OF A MONSOON
    DEPRESSION, BUT RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) IMAGERY AND
    RECENT MULTISPECTRAL (MSI) SHOW SUBSTANTIAL TIGHTENING OF THE
    SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE DUE TO
    AN EXPOSED LLCC AND TWO MICROWAVE IMAGES (A 232223Z SSMI AND 232245Z
    SSMIS). A 231149Z SMAP PASS SHOWED THE HEAVY ASYMMETRY OF THE SYSTEM
    WITH GALE FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OVER THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE
    BUT MUCH LIGHTER EASTERLIES OVER THE POLEWARD SEMICIRCLE. HOWEVER,
    BUOY OBSERVATIONS IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OVER THE PAST 8 HOURS
    VERIFY INCREASING INTENSITY OF THE EASTERLIES AND FALLING PRESSURES
    ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. PREVIOUSLY, THE CYCLONIC
    CIRCULATION WAS FORCED BY A WESTERLY WIND BURST ASSOCIATED WITH THE
    MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION AND THE INDIAN MONSOON CIRCULATION, BUT
    NOW THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO ROTATE INDEPENDENTLY AS IT BEGINS A
    POLEWARD DRIFT. THE INITIAL TRACK IS FOR THE FIRST TWELVE HOURS IS
    UNCERTAIN, WITH THE NEWLY FORMING LLCC ROTATING AROUND A BROAD AND
    DIFFUSE CENTROID, BUT BY TAU 12 THE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE INTO A
    NORTHWESTERLY TRACK, ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
    RIDGE (STR) EXTENDING OVER SOUTHEAST ASIA. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
    AGREEMENT ON A TRACK DIRECTLY TOWARDS THE AREA OF PARADIP, INDIA. 31
    DEGREE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
    HOWEVER, THE BROAD NATURE OF THE CIRCULATION AND LACK OF A WELL-
    DEFINED INNER CORE, ALONG WITH MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
    (15-25 KT) FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BE
    THE LIMITING FACTORS ON INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
    ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES SUPPRESSED POLEWARD
    OUTFLOW AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE
    FIGHTING 20-30KTS OF SHEAR THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, THE SHEAR
    WILL EASE SUBSTANTIALLY AND TC 02B WILL PEAK IN INTENSITY JUST PRIOR
    TO LANDFALL. DUE TO ITS ORIGIN AS A MONSOON DEPRESSION AND THE
    VIGOROUS MONSOONAL SOUTHWESTERLIES, TC 02B WILL CARRY EXPANSIVE
    GALE FORCE WIND FIELDS THROUGHOUT ITS LIFE SPAN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
    WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z,
    241500Z, 242100Z AND 250300Z.//
    NNNN
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