• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0721

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon May 24 18:00:55 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 241800
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 241800=20
    KSZ000-COZ000-242000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0721
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0100 PM CDT Mon May 24 2021

    Areas affected...portions of western KS

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 241800Z - 242000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop in the next 1-2
    hours. A watch will likely be needed by 19-20z. Some tornado
    potential along with damaging gusts and large hail is expected.

    DISCUSSION...A broad cumulus field near the KS/CO border into much
    of western KS has begun to deepen in the vicinity of the surface low
    and near a remnant outflow boundary extending west to east across
    west-central KS. Latest visible satellite imagery has shows at least
    one failed attempt at convective initiation, and surface
    observations in comparison to regional forecast soundings indicate
    convective temperatures have been reached near and south of the
    outflow boundary/surface low. Moderate instability is already
    evident across the region, aided by low to mid 60s F surface
    dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. Given little to no
    inhibition, thunderstorms are likely to develop in the next 1-2
    hours.=20

    Sufficient effective shear will support organized storms capable of
    large hail and damaging gusts. Some increased tornado potential is
    possible near the surface low and outflow boundary, where low level
    vorticity is maximized and surface dewpoints have climbed into the
    64-65 F range. Steepening low level lapse rates and increasing
    moisture is aiding in quite a bit of low level instability, with 0-3
    km MLCAPE greater than 125 J/kg present. This may increase tornado
    potential in a narrow corridor near the surface low and along the
    outflow boundary. With time, storms may grow upscale into a forward
    propagating bow moving eastward across western KS toward evening.

    ..Leitman/Guyer.. 05/24/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!r2tyqMAT82T999vMTb0tvd6JgiaFRO4awVWkCnlnc8GGsVO781-cRMq5KMaI1iI5Seq1KqB4$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...

    LAT...LON 38619983 38019989 37789999 37470053 37330105 37270173
    37450201 37650226 37890229 38700219 39350154 39540108
    39420051 39120004 38619983=20



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