• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0720

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon May 24 17:57:57 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 241757
    SPC MCD 241757=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0720
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1257 PM CDT Mon May 24 2021

    Areas affected...portions of extreme eastern WV...central/southern
    VA and north-central NC

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 241757Z - 242000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A few thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon
    and move southeast through early evening. A couple of storms may
    produce strong/possibly damaging wind gusts. A watch is not
    anticipated given the expected sparse coverage of the severe risk,
    however trends in storm coverage will be monitored.

    DISCUSSION...A west/southwest moving back door cold front extended
    from a weak surface low over southwest PA southward across
    central/southern VA and eastern NC at 17z. Despite mid/high-level
    clouds, temperatures to the west of the front have warmed into the
    80s over southern VA/northern NC. Although mid-level lapse rates
    are poor, the presence of surface dew points generally in the mid
    60s will contribute to MLCAPE of 500-750 J/kg. Widely scattered
    thunderstorms are expected to develop during the early/mid afternoon
    time frame over the higher terrain, with storms subsequently moving
    southeast in the vicinity of the front. Modest northwesterly
    mid-level flow will contribute to 25-30 kts of deep-layer shear in
    the vicinity of the front, supporting some degree of storm
    organization. Steep low-level lapse rates and an appreciable
    sub-cloud temperature-dew point spread will result in a risk for strong/possibly damaging winds with a couple of stronger storms.=20

    The overall severe risk should remain isolated and a watch is not
    expected, however convective trends will be monitored.

    ..Bunting/Guyer.. 05/24/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sAyAvFIwKRdfu-_xO0w_CYj7N7UivbggQFSALyXUdD0HE0y6T4jf1INxCH3NP1-tlCY9seZz$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 36307799 35767842 35727915 36657959 37437971 38007965
    38397958 38687948 38837910 38757872 38417835 37427807

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