Mesoscale Discussion 0717
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0753 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021
Areas affected...Portions of Western/Central Nebraska...northwestern
Concerning...Tornado Watch 196...
Valid 240053Z - 240200Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 196 continues.
SUMMARY...Storms have organized into line, particularly across
western Nebraska. As activity moves east, it is expected to be
maintained for another few hours. A new downstream severe
thunderstorm watch is likely soon as the expected transition to a
damaging wind threat.
DISCUSSION...Storm mode has become linear across most of Tornado
Watch 196 in Nebraska. Mid-level ascent and a developing low-level
jet is anticipated to sustain this activity for the next 2-4 hours
or so. This idea is also supported by the 00Z LBF sounding which
showed around 45 kts of effective shear and 1100 J/kg MLCAPE. With
this activity expected to move out of WW 196, parts of areas
downstream are likely to be included in a new watch soon. Though
low-level shear will be sufficient for embedded circulations within
the squall line, the primary threat is expected to be damaging wind
gusts with isolated large hail. The primary question will be how far
east the watch will extend downstream given relatively slow eastward
motion and low-level stabilization expected to occur.
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