• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0717

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon May 24 00:53:51 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 240053
    SPC MCD 240053=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0717
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0753 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of Western/Central Nebraska...northwestern

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 196...

    Valid 240053Z - 240200Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 196 continues.

    SUMMARY...Storms have organized into line, particularly across
    western Nebraska. As activity moves east, it is expected to be
    maintained for another few hours. A new downstream severe
    thunderstorm watch is likely soon as the expected transition to a
    damaging wind threat.

    DISCUSSION...Storm mode has become linear across most of Tornado
    Watch 196 in Nebraska. Mid-level ascent and a developing low-level
    jet is anticipated to sustain this activity for the next 2-4 hours
    or so. This idea is also supported by the 00Z LBF sounding which
    showed around 45 kts of effective shear and 1100 J/kg MLCAPE. With
    this activity expected to move out of WW 196, parts of areas
    downstream are likely to be included in a new watch soon. Though
    low-level shear will be sufficient for embedded circulations within
    the squall line, the primary threat is expected to be damaging wind
    gusts with isolated large hail. The primary question will be how far
    east the watch will extend downstream given relatively slow eastward
    motion and low-level stabilization expected to occur.

    ..Wendt.. 05/24/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!quXrw9OPjYz0TaEKtaR8C2-oqLhfzJBiRVCwSZ4WGdbK6KRh8zRFgIfAQWA9sRA0mkdi9C1s$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 42210246 42730235 43110234 43290191 43190131 42460117
    41210108 39930140 39370136 39150170 39150255 39440280
    40190281 42210246=20

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