Mesoscale Discussion 0716
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0732 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021
Areas affected...Northeast New Mexico...northwest Texas Panhandle...southeastern Colorado...southwestern Kansas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 198...
Valid 240032Z - 240230Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 198
SUMMARY...Despite a relative lull in convection over the past hour
or so, some additional isolated storms may develop along the
retreating dryline. Large hail would likely be the primary threat.
DISCUSSION...With the main mid-level ascent north of the region and
lifting northeast, storm coverage has remained limited. Mid-level
flow is expected to weaken some with time as well. However, an
increase in 850 mb wind into the westward retreating dryline may
promote additional isolated thunderstorm development later this
evening. The 00Z AMA sounding shows mid-level lapse rates that would
support some threat for large hail. Low-level shear will increase,
but storm organization potential seems likely to diminish with time
making the threat for a tornado minimal.
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