• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0715

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun May 23 23:26:25 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 232326
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 232325=20
    SDZ000-NDZ000-WYZ000-240100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0715
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0625 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021

    Areas affected...Western South Dakota...Southwestern North Dakota

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 197...

    Valid 232325Z - 240100Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 197 continues.

    SUMMARY...Severe threat continues across all but the southwestern
    portions of ww197.

    DISCUSSION...Surface warm front is advancing slowly north across
    northwestern SD/southern ND early this evening. As a result,
    buoyancy is gradually increasing across extreme southern ND where
    surface temperatures have warmed into the lower 70s. One long-lived
    supercell that matured earlier across western SD has lifted to near
    Lemmon and will soon cross the warm front. This storm has produced a
    few tornadoes over southeastern Perkins County SD, and until it
    becomes elevated north of the warm front some tornado threat
    remains. Otherwise, an arcing band of organized convection has
    emerged from the northern Black Hills into northwestern NE. This
    activity should continue surging northeast across the remainder of southeastern/central portions of the watch, eventually spreading
    toward the ND border later this evening. Tornado threat remains
    highest with discrete supercells ahead of the squall line.

    There is some concern that low-level warm advection will begin to
    enhance the elevated convective threat north of the warm front over
    western ND over the next few hours. Forecast soundings suggest hail
    will be the biggest concern with this activity and some
    consideration is being given for a potential severe thunderstorm
    watch over this region.

    ..Darrow.. 05/23/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!v-sL6Y2-uJRBcJ8Y-1kIiohhyONCXe75Lnw3_FrEnzQlRB1TJjjYtFbZX5CTj0MJZoIxcaZ1$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...CYS...

    LAT...LON 43020461 46300361 46310023 43030147 43020461=20



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