• STRMDISC: TD Ana 7

    From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Sun May 23 18:37:00 2021
    508
    WTNT41 KNHC 232043
    TCDAT1

    Tropical Depression Ana Discussion Number 7
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012021
    500 PM AST Sun May 23 2021

    Other than brief puff of convection late this morning, tiny Ana has
    been devoid of organized deep convection for several hours. ASCAT
    overpass data from this morning indicated that the peak winds had
    deceased to 35 kt. Due to the lack of convection since that time,
    it is reasonable to assume that the vortex has spun down a bit, and
    therefore the initial advisory intensity has been lowered to 30 kt.

    Ana is over cool waters and surrounded by very dry air in the
    mid-troposphere. The brief convection that did occur today was
    quickly stripped away, indicating that the anticipated increase in
    shear has begun. Satellite imagery suggests that the circulation of
    Ana is approaching a strong subtropical upper-level jet just to its
    east, which is expected to produce even stronger shear over the
    cyclone. These conditions should prevent further convection, if any,
    from surviving, and the cyclone is expected to degenerate into a
    remnant low by tonight. What is left of Ana's low-level circulation
    should open into a trough on Monday as it is absorbed by a large
    baroclinic zone approaching from the northwest.

    The depression continues to accelerate northeastward, and the
    forward motion is now northeastward at 15 kt. An accelerating
    northwestward motion is anticipated until dissipation as Ana
    gets caught up in increasing deep-layer southwesterly flow.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 23/2100Z 37.5N 57.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
    12H 24/0600Z 39.4N 53.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    24H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

    $$
    Forecaster Latto
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