• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0714

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun May 23 22:38:22 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 232238
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 232237=20
    NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-240030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0714
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0537 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021

    Areas affected...Western Nebraska...northeast Colorado...far
    northwest Kansas

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 196...

    Valid 232237Z - 240030Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 196 continues.

    SUMMARY...Potential for tornadoes will increase into southwest
    Nebraska and far northwest Kansas as low-level shear increases this
    evening. The threat will be greatest with any remaining discrete
    activity moving out of Colorado. Additional storms could develop
    along the southern flank of the current activity and move into a
    similarly favorable environment for tornadoes.

    DISCUSSION...Ongoing convection within Tornado Watch 196 has trended
    somewhat more linear in mode. A supercell moving north through Logan
    County Colorado has a history of tornadoes and will move into
    Nebraska over the next hour or so. This storm poses the greatest
    tornado threat currently. Low-level shear is expected to increase
    ahead of this activity with an increase in the low-level jet this
    evening.

    Farther south, cumulus have continue to deepen along the surface
    trough. With some influence from the shortwave trough and an
    increase in low-level convergence this evening, additional storm
    development is possible. Again, these potential storms would also
    move into a favorable environment for supercells with an attendant
    risk for large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes.

    At present, storm coverage in the Nebraska Panhandle is sparse after
    earlier storms. Given rain-cooled air roughly west of Alliance, NE,
    additional severe storm development will likely occur east of that
    longitude.

    With time, activity is expected to congeal into a linear segments
    with strong/severe wind gusts becoming the main hazard.

    ..Wendt.. 05/23/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!uoH1ICWnW6UkSTUwIuxeYiLAuAeq6UTm6mxSSO0_5RySwLmct02pEKWcXx37d2brwQ72U7rF$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

    LAT...LON 41000342 41620372 42650351 42940285 42780205 41100124
    40100112 39440146 38710212 38200282 38090327 38950368
    40150377 41000342=20



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