Mesoscale Discussion 0714
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0537 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021
Areas affected...Western Nebraska...northeast Colorado...far
Concerning...Tornado Watch 196...
Valid 232237Z - 240030Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 196 continues.
SUMMARY...Potential for tornadoes will increase into southwest
Nebraska and far northwest Kansas as low-level shear increases this
evening. The threat will be greatest with any remaining discrete
activity moving out of Colorado. Additional storms could develop
along the southern flank of the current activity and move into a
similarly favorable environment for tornadoes.
DISCUSSION...Ongoing convection within Tornado Watch 196 has trended
somewhat more linear in mode. A supercell moving north through Logan
County Colorado has a history of tornadoes and will move into
Nebraska over the next hour or so. This storm poses the greatest
tornado threat currently. Low-level shear is expected to increase
ahead of this activity with an increase in the low-level jet this
Farther south, cumulus have continue to deepen along the surface
trough. With some influence from the shortwave trough and an
increase in low-level convergence this evening, additional storm
development is possible. Again, these potential storms would also
move into a favorable environment for supercells with an attendant
risk for large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes.
At present, storm coverage in the Nebraska Panhandle is sparse after
earlier storms. Given rain-cooled air roughly west of Alliance, NE,
additional severe storm development will likely occur east of that
With time, activity is expected to congeal into a linear segments
with strong/severe wind gusts becoming the main hazard.
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