Mesoscale Discussion 0713
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021
Areas affected...Eastern New Mexico...Southeast Colorado...far
Southwest Kansas...and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20
Valid 232041Z - 232215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Area is being monitored for potential severe thunderstorm
watch later this afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Visible satellite shows a band of towering cumulus
continuing to develop along a dry line extending from the Raton Mesa
south across portions of eastern New Mexico. Water vapor shows an
upper-level vort max ejecting into portions of north-central New
Mexico. This feature should provide mid-level forcing for ascent as
it overspreads the aforementioned convective development in the next
couple of hours. As this occurs, isolated storms are expected to
develop along the dry line.
Clear skies east of the dry line have allowed for sufficient
destabilization to occur through early afternoon, with MLCAPE of
1500-2000 J/kg and 40-45 kt of effective shear. Should storms
develop, they may struggle initially amid relatively drier low-level
moisture in proximity to the dry line. However, farther east the
environment is more supportive of organized convection, including
supercells and multicell structures, with large hail and damaging
winds the primary threats. A tornado or two is possible,
particularly later this evening as boundary layer decoupling and
low-level jet onset occur.
In summary, this region continues to be monitored for potential
severe thunderstorm watch issuance later this afternoon.
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