• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0713

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun May 23 20:42:22 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 232042
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 232041=20
    OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-232215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0713
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0341 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021

    Areas affected...Eastern New Mexico...Southeast Colorado...far
    Southwest Kansas...and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 232041Z - 232215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Area is being monitored for potential severe thunderstorm
    watch later this afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Visible satellite shows a band of towering cumulus
    continuing to develop along a dry line extending from the Raton Mesa
    south across portions of eastern New Mexico. Water vapor shows an
    upper-level vort max ejecting into portions of north-central New
    Mexico. This feature should provide mid-level forcing for ascent as
    it overspreads the aforementioned convective development in the next
    couple of hours. As this occurs, isolated storms are expected to
    develop along the dry line.

    Clear skies east of the dry line have allowed for sufficient
    destabilization to occur through early afternoon, with MLCAPE of
    1500-2000 J/kg and 40-45 kt of effective shear. Should storms
    develop, they may struggle initially amid relatively drier low-level
    moisture in proximity to the dry line. However, farther east the
    environment is more supportive of organized convection, including
    supercells and multicell structures, with large hail and damaging
    winds the primary threats. A tornado or two is possible,
    particularly later this evening as boundary layer decoupling and
    low-level jet onset occur.

    In summary, this region continues to be monitored for potential
    severe thunderstorm watch issuance later this afternoon.

    ..Karstens/Guyer.. 05/23/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!r0d-f18moNMwHIXDPFyhVkRWEUtz892YZMrt-cbloeQrsGpqgM_EjxCpLZdWSvD7m3pyBe5I$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 35020286 34520417 34930480 36260452 37100409 38120358
    38230276 38040170 36070204 35020286=20



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