• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0712

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun May 23 19:59:53 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 231959
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 231959=20
    TXZ000-NMZ000-232130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0712
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0259 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021

    Areas affected...Southwest Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 231959Z - 232130Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A few storms capable of large hails and severe wind gusts
    possible this afternoon, watch issuance unlikely.

    DISCUSSION...Convective initiation appears to be occurring over the
    Davis Mountains in southwest Texas. Clear skies have allowed
    temperatures to warm into the mid to upper 80s F in this area amid
    dew point temperatures in the mid 50s F. Farther east, deep
    southeasterly low-level flow has resulted in somewhat richer
    near-surface moisture, with dew point temperatures in the low 60s F.
    These conditions, combined with at least moderate low- and mid-level
    lapse rates, are yielding a north-south axis of instability,
    characterized by MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Despite these
    thermodynamic indices, deep-layer and low-level shear remains rather
    weak.

    The current expectation is for storms to continue developing over
    the high terrain areas of southwest Texas and move east/southeast
    with time, into the somewhat richer low-level moisture reservoir.
    This evolution is supported by recent HRRR runs. Large hail and a
    few severe wind gusts are possible with this activity. The lack of
    appreciable flow aloft over the region should result in somewhat
    disorganized convective evolution with time. Thus, watch issuance is
    not anticipated, but convective trends will be monitored.

    ..Karstens/Guyer.. 05/23/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qq0kuwCWJvv0LzUnziudGcRa7P6qCu3tvIt_dd4heqNlzaEt5NKr1Nq6AT0_CpmfLlSbBt2P$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...

    LAT...LON 29980318 30230396 31110431 32090358 31920236 30430228
    29980318=20



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