Mesoscale Discussion 0712
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0259 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021
Areas affected...Southwest Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20
Valid 231959Z - 232130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A few storms capable of large hails and severe wind gusts
possible this afternoon, watch issuance unlikely.
DISCUSSION...Convective initiation appears to be occurring over the
Davis Mountains in southwest Texas. Clear skies have allowed
temperatures to warm into the mid to upper 80s F in this area amid
dew point temperatures in the mid 50s F. Farther east, deep
southeasterly low-level flow has resulted in somewhat richer
near-surface moisture, with dew point temperatures in the low 60s F.
These conditions, combined with at least moderate low- and mid-level
lapse rates, are yielding a north-south axis of instability,
characterized by MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Despite these
thermodynamic indices, deep-layer and low-level shear remains rather
The current expectation is for storms to continue developing over
the high terrain areas of southwest Texas and move east/southeast
with time, into the somewhat richer low-level moisture reservoir.
This evolution is supported by recent HRRR runs. Large hail and a
few severe wind gusts are possible with this activity. The lack of
appreciable flow aloft over the region should result in somewhat
disorganized convective evolution with time. Thus, watch issuance is
not anticipated, but convective trends will be monitored.
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