• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0711

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun May 23 19:57:48 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 231957
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 231957=20
    NEZ000-KSZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-232200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0711
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0257 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021

    Areas affected...Parts of northeastern Colorado and southeastern
    Wyoming into southwestern South Dakota...the Nebraska Panhandle and northwestern Kansas

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 196...

    Valid 231957Z - 232200Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 196 continues.

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to continue to increase in
    coverage through late afternoon. This may be accompanied by
    continuing risk for large hail and tornadoes, but it appears that
    activity will begin consolidating into an organizing, northeastward
    and eastward advancing cluster with strong surface gusts becoming
    the more prominent hazard by 4-5 PM MDT.

    DISCUSSION...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development is
    ongoing, particularly within deepening surface troughing near/just
    west of the Wyoming/Nebraska border, southward to near Limon, CO.=20
    This is occurring in the presence of an increasingly less inhibited,
    moist boundary-layer characterized by moderately large CAPE of
    1000-2000 J/kg, and strong deep-layer vertical shear.

    As the southeastern-most vigorous mid-level perturbation (within
    larger-scale mid-level troughing emerging from the Intermountain
    West) gradually accelerates north-northeastward across the Front
    Range through 21-23Z, a substantive further increase in thunderstorm development appears likely. A convective outflow generated or
    enhanced surface front already appears to be surging east of the
    Laramie Mountains. As convection continues to increase, steepening
    lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates may support strengthen outflows,
    which probably will begin to consolidate and contribute to an
    upscale growing and organizing convective system. This should tend
    to propagate north-northeastward and eastward with increasing
    potential for strong surface gusts by early evening.

    ..Kerr.. 05/23/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qVMKs32G1ctR_O4PSxSHvb7yq95ey_UM6ukbNO77gmfj8jRTXkpU76OASsuO_1ocWErd1OyS$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...

    LAT...LON 43960330 42790207 40090190 38970288 38920324 40010383
    42370420 43960330=20



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