• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0710

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun May 23 18:59:21 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 231859
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 231858=20
    SDZ000-232100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0710
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0158 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021

    Areas affected...Parts of western South Dakota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 231858Z - 232100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will develop east through north-northeast of
    the Black Hills by 3-5 PM MDT, with the potential for a few to
    intensify and pose increasing risk for severe hail, and perhaps a
    couple of tornadoes.

    DISCUSSION...A surface frontal zone, associated with the
    southern/leading edge of shallow cold surface air, initially south
    through east-northeast of the Black Hills, is eroding from southeast
    to northwest. There is variance between the NAM and Rapid Refresh
    concerning how this proceeds to the east and north-northeast of the
    Black Hills through the remainder of the afternoon, as surface
    pressures continue to fall across the high plains in response to a
    couple of mid-level perturbations approaching the northern Rockies.=20
    However, given potential for weak to moderate boundary-layer
    destabilization, in the presence of strong (and strengthening)
    deep-layer shear, the development of vigorous, organized convection
    appears possible by 21-23Z. This may initially include supercells
    posing a risk for severe hail, along with a conditional risk for
    tornadoes.

    ..Kerr/Guyer.. 05/23/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vGvZDQ6hOsbNG84wBSZB__YeXRAQ9X2JCQhRSTNOgbyrm2mMQeNFl9PVZWGMk2_StYpOXLzN$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR...

    LAT...LON 44320356 44950302 45580285 45850262 45690188 45010087
    43500197 43150271 43060333 44320356=20



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