• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0709

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun May 23 17:20:51 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 231720
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 231720=20 MAZ000-RIZ000-NHZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-231915-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0709
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1220 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021

    Areas affected...Southern New York...Northern Pennsylvania...and
    Southern New England

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 231720Z - 231915Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated storms capable of a few damaging wind gusts
    possible this afternoon, watch issuance unlikely.

    DISCUSSION...Visible satellite shows early morning clearing ahead of
    an east-west oriented cold front moving into portions of southern
    New York and vicinity has allowed for modest destabilization and
    widespread cumulus development across the region, with a few higher
    dBZ returns now showing up on KBGM. Surface temperatures have
    already warmed into the mid-80s F, with surface dew point
    temperatures in the low 60s F. This is yielding approximately
    500-1000 J/kg of SBCAPE/MUCAPE despite marginal mid- and low-level
    lapse rates. Effective shear ranges from 30-40 kt across the region,
    increasing with eastern extent, amid a northwesterly unidirectional
    flow regime.=20

    As surface heating/destabilization continues, isolated thunderstorm
    development is expected to continue along the advancing cold front.
    Convection will be capable of mixing moderately strong flow aloft
    toward the surface, as indicated by DCAPE values of 400-800 J/kg.
    Thus a few isolated damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon.
    Storm cores may be a little more organized in/near the southern New
    England area, given slightly higher values of deep-layer shear, and
    thus, perhaps better potential for severe wind gusts. However, given
    the expectation for isolated storm coverage, watch issuance is not
    anticipated at this time.

    ..Karstens/Guyer.. 05/23/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oWzUOkCdalIKGWGvVZ_l2RLHA9CR1Rc3JiwNmpYNkvk4yb5K5egy1z-kwbo73OX8so2Y-KP3$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...
    PBZ...

    LAT...LON 40807875 41257945 41937909 42447696 42687492 42747176
    42377067 41866997 41207002 40767170 40477390 40367627
    40457737 40807875=20



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