• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0708

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun May 23 16:53:52 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 231653
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 231653=20
    COZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-231900-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0708
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1153 AM CDT Sun May 23 2021

    Areas affected...Much of eastern Wyoming and Colorado into
    southwestern South Dakota and the Nebraska Panhandle

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 231653Z - 231900Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...The initiation of scattered thunderstorm development is
    expected during the next few hours, with a few supercells evolving
    through Noon-2 PM MDT. One or more severe weather watches likely
    will be needed.

    DISCUSSION...Based on latest water vapor imagery, the leading edge
    of the stronger mid-level forcing for ascent and cooling has begun
    to overspread the Laramie Mountains, and likely will begin to spread
    into and across the Front Range between now and 18-20Z. Coinciding
    with continuing insolation and low-level moisture advection (mid 50s
    to around 60F surface dew points across the high plains) on
    southeasterly near surface flow, steepening lapse rates appear
    likely to support moderately large CAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg, near
    and east of the higher terrain.

    As destabilization progresses, storms will initiate first across the
    higher terrain, aided by favorable orographic forcing. However,
    within deepening surface troughing, near the Wyoming/Nebraska
    Panhandle into the plains of eastern Colorado, the initiation of at
    least widely scattered thunderstorms appears possible by 20Z.

    Southerly deep-layer ambient mean flow appears on the order of 40-45
    kt, but with flow in the 500-300 mb layer forecast to intensify to
    50-90 kt, strengthening shear will become supportive of supercells,
    with a tendency to propagate northeastward and eastward. As storms
    propagate off the higher terrain, and form within the lee surface
    troughing, they will intensify and pose a risk for large hail and
    perhaps a couple of tornadoes by mid afternoon.

    ..Kerr/Guyer.. 05/23/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rg47ZKbEZagHMN0WRx8SxTkAiYLAantRML30AktKGSNM0TBc824SY0TqBRGNEcNlT8f2H5R-$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

    LAT...LON 43910499 43050311 40770293 39530267 38500374 38800477
    40010528 40500532 41560544 42800561 43910499=20



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