• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0706

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat May 22 23:31:45 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 222331
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 222331=20
    NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-230130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0706
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0631 PM CDT Sat May 22 2021

    Areas affected...Southwestern Nebraska and far northwester Kansas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 195...

    Valid 222331Z - 230130Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 195
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Additional storm development is possible along an outflow
    boundary in northwest KS/southwest Nebraska. Increase in MLCIN this
    evening makes that scenario uncertain. Storms are likely to move out
    of Colorado later this evening and post some threat for
    strong/damaging wind gusts and a brief tornado along the stationary
    boundary.

    DISCUSSION...Shear into southwestern Nebraska and northwestern
    Kansas is generally weaker in the warm sector than areas to the
    west. This has led to to a relatively disorganized storm mode.
    Furthermore, storms that were initially intense along the stationary
    boundary moved north and became elevated quickly. With this activity
    departed, an outflow boundary is evident in surface observations and
    visible satellite along the western NE/KS border. This area is
    likely the remaining focus for any additional storm development this
    evening. However, with capping beginning to increase, it is not
    certain this will occur. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and
    perhaps a tornado would be possible with that activity.

    To the north and west, storms will not likely impact parts of the
    Nebraska Panhandle until 9-11 PM CDT as activity moves northeast out
    of Colorado. As this activity is expected to be more linear in mode,
    damaging wind gusts would likely be the primary threat. Given the
    presence of the boundary, a brief tornado could occur along and near
    it.

    ..Wendt.. 05/22/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pXsfRrPdTFvqYVmA_ROzTRyALVODszn14CnMeNT6BkJk6Ss_2uvzZYsdMTZBUuD6DRvks1wh$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

    LAT...LON 39850215 40120227 40670242 41010280 41040321 41420346
    41690267 41430169 40540050 40070022 39510043 39490157
    39850215=20



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